You're doing something. Fair enough
What if there's no obvious end-point?
- Like finding the "just-right" SME for the team ... you never know when that is going to happen
- When should you stop looking at candidates?
Look no farther than the "optimal stopping" algorithm!
As explained by authors Christian and Griffiths*, there are two ways to make a mistake trying to find the "best" SME ... assuming you are interviewing candidates in random order
- Stop too soon, hiring "suboptimally", missing out on the best candidate you never get to interview
- Stop too late, passing up the pick of the litter hoping there is an even better candidate
After a lot of research, and numerous academic papers, the computer science community has arrived at an algorithm (of course they have): "Look, then leap".
Look, then leap
Step 1: set a fixed time to look over the field. Don't choose anyone (or anything) in the "look" phase
Step 2: after the look phase, leap! Leap on the best candidate that then comes along, or go back to a "best" in the look phase if they are still available.
What's the chance that you'll get the "best" candidate? About one chance in three ... actually, long term, 37%. Here's an abbreviated chart of the odds, as developed by validation of the optimal stopping algorithm:
- 3 candidates; take the best after 1; 50% chance of getting the best
- 6 candidates; take the best after 2; 43% chance of the best
- 10 candidates; take the best after 3; 40% chance of the best
- Huge number; take the best after 37% of huge; 37% chance of getting the best
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* "Algorithms to Live by", Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths
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