Uncertainty is non-negotiable

---

"Uncertainty is an essential and nonnegotiable part of a forecast. .... sometimes an honest and accurate expression of the uncertainty is what has the potential to save [big things].... However, there is another reason to quantify the uncertainty carefully and explicitly. It is essential to scientific progress, especially under Bayes’s theorem."

"The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't" 

by Nate Silver

Now, some say: "we don't estimate; we don't forecast".
Of course, that's nonsense. Everyone estimates, if even only in their head

• How long will it take me to write this blog?
• How long will it take me to go to lunch?
• How long will it take me to do almost anything I can think of? 

But, Mr Silver leads all discussion of uncertainty, estimates, and forecasts around to Bayes Theorem, which can be laid out this way as a process:

• Formulate an issue or question or hypothesis
• Make an early guess as to outcome
• Experiment to gather evidence as to whether or not the guess is reasonable
• Re-formulate based on evidence -- or lack thereof
• Repeat as necessary 

In fact, in another part of Silver's book, he says this -- a cautionary statement for project managers:

"In science, one rarely sees all the data point toward one precise conclusion. Real data is noisy—even if the theory is perfect, the strength of the signal will vary. And under Bayes’s theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing. This is what scientific skepticism is all about."

And, one last caution from author Silver -- which reinforces the ideas of the Bayes process and also makes the point -- often ignored or overlooked --  that there is often little enough data inside one-time projects to support textbook statistical approaches:

"As we have learned throughout this book, purely statistical approaches toward forecasting are ineffective at best when there is not a sufficient sample of data to work with." 

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Teamwork -- managing the white space

---

One of the big differences between a team and a group is cohesiveness around the goal:

There's no success individually unless there is success collectively.

Inevitably, keeping the team together to promote cohesiveness raises the question: how to keep everyone busy all the time -- other than 'painting rocks' (which is the way the Army used to do it). In the popular vernacular of project management, keeping everyone productively busy means actively managing their downtime, aka 'white space', between and amongst their planned activities.

In organizations that are aggressively matrix managed, one approach to 'white space' management is to reassign people to another project with the intention of just a short assignment to 'keep them off the overhead' and always on 'billable hours'.  Of course, such practice breaks up the team for a short time so it kind of flies in the face of cohesiveness, team accomplishment, and team metrics.

And, aggressive matrix management assumes the F.W. Taylor model of management science: jobs can be filled by anyone qualified for the job description... interchangeable parts, as it were. In the era of team work where teams recruit their members, Taylorism is an anathema. Thus, aggressive matrix management is likewise seen as anti-team.

That all brings us to another approach -- more popular these days -- which is: manage the white space by managing the team backlog.

• Make sure that the backlog has all the technical debt and low priority requirements present and accounted for so that they can be fit to the white space opportunity.
• Develop and maintain a "parking lot" for off-baseline opportunities that might fit in the white space
• So also bring in mock testing, special event prototyping, and, of course, that bane of all:
• Maintenance of team records.

One big advantage of managing by teams: the cost is relatively fixed. Each team has a running cost, and so the total cost closely approximates the sum of the number of teams x the running cost of each. Of course, many PMs are NOT comfortable with the project staff being a fixed cost. They would much rather have more granular control. I get it, but the here's the main point about cost:

The cost of a project is not its value; in a "good project", value greatly exceeds cost

Here's the memo: Manage for value! (Oh!, did I say I wrote the book?)

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

The Project Balance Sheet

---

If you follow this blog you've read several references to the project balance sheet. So, is this about accounting? Yes, and no: Yes, it's about a double entry tool to keep track of "mine" and "yours", but no, it's not the accountant's tool used in your father's accounting office.

Take a look at this figure:

What have we got here?

First, the business and the project; but also what's mine -- the project stuff -- and what's yours -- the business stuff. Mine and yours!

On the left side of the balance sheet is the sponsor's investment in the project. Investment need not be all monetized, and it need not be all tangible. Sometimes 'good will' -- the accountant's name for the intangible gut feeling that this thing is worth more than book value (market-valued assets) -- counts for a lot. (Think: sponsor commitment, even when the going gets tough)
'Yours' simply means it's resources and commitments owned and given by others to the project. It's the 'your's side of the balance sheet that's somewhat akin to the right side of the financial balance sheet (money owed to creditors and money invested by owners).

On the right side is the 'mine' side of the project balance sheet, akin to the left side of the financial accounting sheet (assets of the enterprise). The right side is the project side:

• Estimates and evaluations of the project manager
• Uses for the investment and resources to be entrusted to the project manage -- in effect deliverables and other artifacts, and perhaps some intangibles as well*

All about facts
 And, take note: the left side, the sponsor's side, is the fact-free zone: it's a top down allocation of resources to the vision. It is the ultimate utility expression of the sponsors: what's valuable, and how valuable, even if not entirely objective.

And on the right side, it's all about facts (benchmarks) and estimates (benchmarks applied to project circumstances). It's bottom up.

The gap
Of course, there's the inevitable gap where utility collides with facts and fact-based estimates. The gap is the risk between expectations and capacity-capability. And how large is the gap (risk): only as large as needed to create a balance--that is, a deal with the devil--so that the project can go forward.

 In other words, the gap (risk), shown on the project side, is only as large as it needs to be to close the gap. Usually, it's a matter of negotiation, but once the PMB is set, the risk is the PM's responsibility to manage.

Oops! the PM is the ultimate risk manager.

In a real world example, I had this situation:

• We bid a job competitively in a firm fixed price environment. 
• We offered a price that was equal to our cost; in other words, no fee (profit).  We just wanted to keep the lights on and keep barriers to competition with our customer as high as possible. 
• We won! 
• And, in  the next moment, my general manager said: "Your bonus depends on making 4% net margin".  I had my gap!  (oh yes, I made the margin and the customer was satisfied)

---

* Yes, indeed! Projects produce intangibles, even good will, but it makes for an accounting of project value all the less objective.

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

If you can't draw it, ..... (can you build it?)

---

Many creative people will tell you that new ideas begin -- often spontaneously -- with a mind's sketch that they then render in some kind of media.

Fair enough -- no news there. We've talked about storyboards, etc before.

But then the heavy lifting begins. How to fill in the details? Where to start?

My advice: Draw it first.

If you can't draw it, you can't build it!

And so the question is begged: What's "it"

Three elements:

1. Narrative
2. Architecture
3. Network

And, one more for the PM:

• Methodology

Digression: My nephew reminds me that now we have 3-D printing as a prototype "drawing" tool. Indeed, that's his job: creating 3-D prototypes.

Narrative: (an example)
Bridge stanchion with strain sensor and sensor software

Architecture:
Let's start drawing: Actually, I like drawing with boxes. Here's my model, beginning with the ubiquitous black box (anyone can draw this!):

Black Box

Of course, at this point there is not much you can do with this 100% opaque object, though we could assign a function to it like, for example: bridge stanchion (hardware) or order entry shopping cart (software)

And so given a function, it needs an interface (blue); some way to address it's functionality and to enable its behavior in a larger system context:

Interface

And then we add content (white):

Content

Except, not so fast! We need 'room' for stuff to happen, for the content to have elasticity for the unforeseen. And, so we add a buffer (grey) around the content, but inside the interface, thus completing the model:

• Black: Boundary
• Blue: Interface or API
• Grey: Buffer
• White: functional content

You could call this an architecture-driven approach and you would not be wrong:

1. First, come the boxes:

• Define major functional "boxes"... what each box has to do, starting with the boundary (black): what's in/what's out. This step may take a lot of rearranging of things. Cards, notes, and other stories may be helpful in sorting the 'in' from the 'out'. If you've done affinity mapping, this boundary drill will be familiar.
• Our example: three boxes consisting of (1) bridge stanchion (2) strain sensor (3) sensor software

Then comes the interface:

• Then define the major way into and out of each box (interface, I/F, blue). If the interface is active, then: what does it do? and how do you get it to do it?

And then comes the "white box" detail:

• The buffer, grey, captures exceptions or allows for performance variations. In effect, the buffer gives the content, white, some elasticity on its bounds.
• And then there is the actual functional content, to include feature and performance.

Network

2. Second big step: networks of boxes

• Think of the boxes as nodes on a network
• Connect the 'black' boxes in a network. The connectors are the ways the boxes communicate with the system
•  Define network protocols for the connectors: how the interfaces actually communicate and pass data and control among themselves. This step may lead to refactoring some of the interface functionality previously defined.
• That gets you a high-level "network-of-boxes" . Note: Some would call the boxes "subsystems", and that's ok. The label doesn't change the architecture or the functionality.

3. Third big step: white box design.

Define all the other details for the 'white box' design. All the code, wiring, and nuts and bolts to build out the box.

• Expect to refactor the network as the white box detail emerges
• Expect to refactor the white box once development begins. See: agile methods

And, not last: Methodology:

The beauty of this model is that each box can have its own methodology, so long as interfaces (blue) and boundaries (black) are honored among all boxes. In other words, once the boundaries and interfaces are set, they are SET!

The methodology can then be chosen for the white box detail: perhaps Agile for the software and some form of traditional for the hardware. This heterogeneous methodology domain is workable so long as there is honor among methods:

Interfaces and boundaries are sacrosanct!

Now What?
Estimate the work (yes, estimate: you really can't start off spending other people's money without an estimate); segment and sequence the work; and then build it, deliver it, and you are DONE!

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Friction -- a consequence of debt

---

And, so now we've all come to the point in the art and science of project management that not only do we have a myriad of biases that have been listed and explained and examined over the past 30 years, but now we have debts. The new one (for me) is social debt, as described by Philippe Kruchten


He tells us:

Damian Tamburri, from VU in Amsterdam, has introduced the notion of social debt, as a counter part of technical debt [ICSE2013 workshop].

Social debt is .... the accumulation over time of decisions about the way the development team (or community) communicates, collaborates and coordinates; in other words, decisions about the organizational structure, the process, the governance, the social interactions, or some elements inherited through the people: their knowledge, personality, working style, etc

Now, put social debt together with technical debt -- all the myriad of little things left undone -- and you get the idea of the friction in the project -- that is: impediments to velocity; inefficiencies in productivity. And, like friction in the physical world in which energy is wastefully converted to heat, only to dissipate without adding value, these debts absorb project energy.

So, what price -- actually, for the PM: cost -- is non-value-add of friction? First, friction spreads the tails of the Monte Carlo simulation of cost and schedule, and potentially shifts the mean cost and schedule to the right. Second, and certainly a root cause of the first point, friction holds back productivity and gives rise to lost energy (to overcome friction) and lower velocity (less throughput)

Fair enough. But, what do we do about it?

• New project? Take a look at the history of overcoming debt and make adjustments to the knobs and switches of your project model
• Got flexibility? Reorganize, retrain, change environment or tools, or add SMEs (or dismiss the high-friction nemesis)
• On-going project? Rebaseline. That may cancel a lot of the social debt built up in the existing project. In effect: reboot
• Risk management? Sure, think of both technical and social debt as a risk to be managed

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

One generation back

---

It's been a whole generation?

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Expert forecasts, or not

---

More from Nate Silver:

"The more fundamental problem is that we have a demand for experts in our society but we don’t actually have that much of a demand for accurate forecasts.”

Could this be the issue? (Silver continues:)

"As [many] see it, [project] forecasters face three fundamental challenges.

• First, it is very hard to determine cause and effect from [project] statistics alone.
• Second, the [project circumstance] is always changing, so explanations of [project] behavior that hold in one [ ] cycle may not apply to future ones.
• And third, as bad as their forecasts have been, the data that [project analysts] have to work with isn’t much good either."

Is this the justification for "no estimates?"

Nope, it's a caution about the real world. Other people with the money expect an estimate before work begins.

Have you ever had work done on your car or home without asking for an estimate? I hope your answer is No; and I hope you understand: stuff happens, even so.

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Scale down, or "too small to succeed?"

---

What about scaling down?
Most of the posts I read are about scaling up to ever larger projects, but what about scaling down? What if you are doing bug fixes and small scale projects with just one or two people? Is a methodology of any help, and if you're working with software, can Agile be helpful scaled down?

To the first point, my answer is: Sure! A methodology -- which is just a repeated way of stringing practices together -- can help. Why invent the 'string' (methodology) each time you do something? Just follow the same practices in the same sequences each time. Thus, you can have a methodology for just driving your car... perhaps the ultimate team-of-one.

Small scale Agile
Re agile and small scale: Really, the agile manifesto does not inherently break down at small scale; nor do the agile principles. It's actually easier to go smaller than to go larger.

But, not so fast! What about:...

• Teams and all the stuff about team work if you are only one or two people?
• Pair programming?
• Redundancy and multi-functionalism?
• Collaboration and communication by osmosis with others?

Admittedly, you give up a few things in a team-of-one situation -- perhaps pair programming and redundancy -- but there's no reason to give up the other ideas of agile:

• close coordination and collaboration with the customer/user
• a focus on satisfying expectation over satisfying specification
• quick turn around of usable product
• personal commitment and accountability
• collaboration with peers and SMEs on a frequent and informal basis
• lean thinking
• Kanban progression and accountability

Got redundancy?
The hardest thing to deal with in a too-small team is lack of redundancy -- or not being anti-fragile -- and lack of enough skill and experience to work over a large domain. It's pretty obvious that one person team has a single point failure: when you're away, the team is down. Such a failure mode may not tolerable to others; such a failure mode is obviously fragile, unable to absorb large shock without failing.

And, one person's experience only extends so far... thus limiting the domain and extent of possible solutions (leading, sometimes, to: "if all you have is a hammer, then everything is a nail" misuses and abuses of whatever your skill set is. I once had a person who was a loner and also an expert with MSAccess... no matter the problem, he seemed to solve it with Access!)

Management challenges
As managers we are responsible for making it work. So in the situation of really small teams, there can still be, and we should insist upon:

• an opening narrative
• a conversation about requirements and approach (to include architecture)
• peer review by other experts
• code inspections and commitment to standards
• rotation of assignments among context to drive broadening
• reflection and retrospective analysis

---

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!

Read my contribution to the Flashblog