The Siberian dilemma has been around a long time. The narrative goes like this:
It's a seriously sub-zero day on a frozen lakeDamned if you do; damned if you don't.
You're walking across the lake and fall through a weak spot in the ice
If you stay in the water, you'll die in 5 minutes;
If you get out the water, you'll die in 2 minutes.
The dilemma: stay in the water and live longer, or get out and die sooner?
Risk management:
You could frame this as a case in risk management:
- There's no risk to manage if you stay in the water. Circumstances and outcomes are fixed, so there's no opportunity for management intervention. It's like a coin toss with both sides tails.
- There is limited opportunity for intervention if you get out the water. At least the circumstnaces of chance -- die in two minutes --are not fixed. Perhaps you could run around to generate body heat and circulate blood faster. Perhaps there is nearby shelter.
The dilemma is mistated. A better rendering:
- Stay in the water and accept a certain outcome, or get out and "do something" to change circumstances
Franklin Roosevelt had a take on this:
If it doesn't work, try something else; but always try!
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