"When the facts change, I update my priors"
Dr Bill Hanage of Harvard, as quoted in the press
And so what exactly is he talking about?
Answer: Bayesian statistical methods
The essential matter in Bayes, as different from traditional frequency-of-occurrence statistics is that the starting point is a "guess" leavened by hypothesized or observed conditions.
- The probability of event A, given the apriori conditions of B existing, has a dependency not only probability of B existing, but also the probability of A itself, and the probability that B can exist in the event of A
- Now, the conditioning of A by the existence or likely existence of B is what is called the "priors"
- If by observation or otherwise it becomes evident that your understanding of B has changed, then an "update to priors" is required, thus bringing about a different understanding of A conditioned on B
"Update your priors": it's only common sense!
Buy them at any online book retailer!
